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AI and Cyber: New Challenges to National and Global Security
General Studies Paper – III: Technology, Economic Development, Biodiversity, Environment, Security and Disaster Management.
Context
The traditional security framework was primarily limited to physical boundaries, but the digital revolution has made 'cyberspace' the fifth dimension of security. At present, the unprecedented development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the convergence of cyber threats have made the global security landscape extremely complex and high-risk.
AI and Cyber Concepts
Cyberspace: It is a digital ecosystem made up of computers, networks, data, and the internet.
- Integration of AI: AI algorithms accelerate both automated threat detection in cybersecurity and the development of complex malware, making them dynamic and rapid.
Why in Discussion?
Systems like 'Mythos': Recently, AI models developed by US firms have been found capable of exposing 'Zero-day' vulnerabilities.
- Military Applications: Widespread use of AI-driven autonomous weapons and drone attacks in the Russia-Ukraine and West Asia conflicts.
- Intellectual Property Disputes: Accusations by the US against China that its 'Moonshot' AI stole data/technology from the 'Fable' model of the US company Anthropic.
What is an AI Model and ‘Zero-Day’?
Meaning of ‘Zero-Day’:
- Concept: A ‘Zero-day’ is a security flaw/vulnerability present in software, an operating system, or a digital system that is unknown to the vendor/developer, or for which no security patch is currently available.
- Nomenclature: It is called ‘Zero-day’ because once the flaw comes to light, developers have ‘zero days’ of advance preparation to create an effective security patch to prevent its exploitation.
Contribution of AI Models to ‘Zero-Day’:
- Automated Detection: Advanced AI models and agentic AI systems can automatically analyze large and complex code bases to accelerate the process of discovering and testing unknown security vulnerabilities.
- Dual-Use Risk:
- Positive (Defensive): Cybersecurity experts can identify vulnerabilities early and prepare patches, thereby reducing the probability of an attack.
- Negative (Offensive): If the same capability falls into the hands of cybercriminals or hostile groups, it can make the identification and exploitation of vulnerabilities much faster and automated.
Changes Over Time: Use of AI and Cyber in Warfare
Asymmetric Warfare: Small factions or 'rogue states' can also paralyze the critical infrastructure of large nations using AI-powered cyber weapons.
- Autonomous Firepower: Weapon systems like "Goalkeeper" and "Whiplash" are capable of independently identifying targets and launching attacks without human intervention.
Power Shift and the Balance of Power
Corporate Dominance: Big-tech companies (such as Anthropic, Palantir) are emerging as more powerful than sovereign nations due to their technological edge.
- Disruption of 'Zero Trust': AI agents are easily outsmarting internal cybersecurity protocols, shifting the epicenter of hard power.
Necessary Rules, Expert Opinions, and Potential Impacts
Necessity: Restructuring of global regulations to control 'Agentic Autonomous Operations'.
- Expert Opinion: "Human control" (Human-in-the-loop) is essential to avoid hallucinations and algorithmic biases in AI.
- Impact: Uncontrolled AI could lead to a cyber-apocalypse and global techno-instability.
Government Initiatives and Legal Provisions
India: Digital Personal Data Protection Act (DPDP Act 2023), National Cyber Security Policy, and strengthening of CERT-In.
- European Union (EU): Implemented the world's first comprehensive risk-based "EU AI Act".
- United States: Executive Orders on AI safety and responsible use.
Worldwide Scenario
US-China Competition: The race for AI dominance between the two superpowers has created a situation akin to a tech cold war.
- Lack of Global Initiatives: No universally binding treaty, similar to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) for nuclear arms, has yet been established for AI and cyber weapons.
Analysis
The combination of AI and cyber is a 'double helix' of security threats that is dismantling the traditional military balance. Until a equilibrium is struck between the speed of AI and human wisdom, technology will remain a catalyst for destruction rather than a tool for development.
Way Forward
Global Multilateral Treaty: An internationally binding framework should be created to delineate autonomous AI weapons, on the lines of nuclear arms agreements.
- Transparency and Auditability: Regular security and bias audits of AI system algorithms must be made mandatory.
- Strategic Realism: Nations should adopt a strategy of "feeling the stones to cross the river" (a balanced approach) rather than blindly adopting technology.
Conclusion
The convergence of AI and cybersecurity has brought human civilization to a critical juncture. Establishing global control over its destructive aspects while safeguarding technological innovation is the single greatest diplomatic and strategic test of the 21st century.
Green Credit Programme (GCP): Incentivising Environmental Conservation in India, Implementation, and Challenges
General Studies Paper – III: Technology, Economic Development, Biodiversity, Environment, Security and Disaster Management.
Context
The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has recently informed Parliament regarding the implementation status of the 'Green Credit Programme' (GCP). Notified under the 'Green Credit Rules, 2023' framed under the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986, this programme is a voluntary and market-based initiative of the Government of India. Its main objective is to encourage individuals, communities, industries, and institutions to undertake measurable environmental actions (such as afforestation, water conservation, soil improvement) and accelerate carbon sequestration while promoting 'Mission LiFE'.
What is the Green Credit Programme (GCP)?
The Green Credit Programme (GCP) is an innovative incentive system that rewards positive ecological contributions beyond mere carbon emission reductions.
- Administrator: Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education (ICFRE), Dehradun.
- Core Framework: This programme is a strategic shift towards incentive-based environmental management instead of merely regulation-driven conservation.
- Digital Mechanism: A dedicated 'Green Credit Programme Portal' has been developed to make the process of registration, monitoring, and issuance of green credits transparent.
Why in Recent News?
- Parliamentary Update: Presentation of a progress report by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change in Parliament regarding the issuance of green credits, restoration of degraded forest land, and the monitoring mechanism.
- Revised Methodology: The methodology for tree plantation and eco-restoration was notified on February 22, 2024, and revised on August 29, 2025.
- Strengthening Mission LiFE: Encouraging sustainable lifestyles through community-level behavioural change.
Key Focus Areas, Eligibility, and Institutional Framework
This programme focuses on eight major areas of environmental conservation (tree plantation, water management, sustainable agriculture, waste management, air pollution control, mangrove restoration, etc.):
Eligibility and Conditions for Issuing Credits (For Tree Plantation):
- Land Selection: Selection of eligible degraded forest land parcels with a minimum size of 5 hectares.
- Canopy Density: Credits are issued after a 5-year establishment period once a minimum of 40% canopy density is achieved.
- Calculation Rate: 1 Green Credit is issued for each surviving tree.
- Non-tradable Status: Tree-based green credits are non-transferable, which can only be used to meet specific environmental and social compliance obligations.
Institutional Framework
Institution | Key Role and Responsibility |
ICFRE, Dehradun (Administrator) | Implementation of the programme, operation of the portal, record maintenance, and issuance of credits after verification. |
State Forest Departments | Identification, verification, and registration of eligible degraded forest parcels, and facilitating restoration works. |
Designated Monitoring Agencies | Conducting unbiased on-site verification of restoration works and submitting reports to the Administrator. |
Benefits of the Programme
- Environmental Benefits:
- Restoration of damaged forest areas and natural habitats.
- Efficient absorption of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2).
- Groundwater recharge and prevention of soil erosion.
- Helps in controlling global temperature rise and climate change.
- Socio-economic Benefits:
- Increase in the availability of timber and non-timber forest produce (NTFPs).
- Accessibility of fodder and water for local livestock.
- Strengthening of natural ecosystem services (like pollination and water purification).
- Creation of employment and livelihood opportunities for forest-dependent local communities.
Implementation Challenges
Key Challenges | Practical Impacts / Concerns |
Long-term Survival: | Ensuring the survival of newly planted saplings during the 5-year period is a difficult task. |
Threat of Monoculture: | The risk of planting fast-growing single species instead of restoring bio-diverse forests. |
Transparency and Verification: | Lack of adequate institutional capacity for large-scale tracking and verification of green credits. |
Conflict of Commercial Interests: | Neglect of actual ecological health under the pressure of corporate greed and compliance. |
Way Forward
- Biodiverse Afforestation: Instead of merely increasing the number of trees, priority should be given to planting native species.
- Technological Integration: Real-time monitoring of canopy density and survival rates through Satellite Imagery, Drones, and GIS mapping.
- Participation of Local Communities: Involving Gram Panchayats and Village Forest Committees in the conservation process by providing direct benefits of incentive amounts.
- Capacity Building: Expanding the institutional capacities of State Forest Departments and designated verification agencies.
Conclusion
The Green Credit Programme (GCP) is a historic step for India towards incentive-based environmental management, moving away from mere regulatory mandates. If a scientific approach, transparent verification, and active participation of local communities are ensured, this programme will not only rejuvenate India's degraded forests but also prove to be a milestone in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while realizing the dreams of 'Mission LiFE'.
India’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Strategy: Widening Trade Deficit, Economic Challenges, and the Way Forward
General Studies Paper – III: Technology, Economic Development, Bio-diversity, Environment, Security, and Disaster Management.
Context
Recently, a high-level meeting of the India-European Union (EU) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) concluded in Brussels, attended by India’s Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, European Council President António Costa, and Principal Scientific Adviser Ajay Kumar Sood. Over the past few years, India has rapidly expanded bilateral free trade agreements to secure greater market access and promote its economic and strategic interests. However, amidst dominant narratives that these agreements stimulate export growth, the widening trade deficit raises a serious analytical question.
India’s FTA Landscape: Recent Agreements and Ongoing Negotiations
India has taken a decisive step toward bilateralism with the objective of integrating into Global Value Chains (GVCs) and fostering industrial dynamism:
- Recently Concluded Agreements: FTAs with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Australia, Oman, the United Kingdom (UK), the European Union (EU), and New Zealand.
- Ongoing Trade Negotiations: Ongoing bilateral talks with the United States (US), Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and Canada.
- Strategic Objectives: Securing greater market access, attracting foreign investment, and strengthening India’s leverage in economic statecraft.
Reasons for Recent Discussion
India-EU FTA Meeting: High-level talks held in Brussels and India’s growing inclination toward new free trade agreements.
- Widening Trade Deficit with Asian Economies: Despite agreements with ASEAN, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore, India’s imports have grown at a much faster pace than its exports.
- Questioning Traditional Trade Assumptions: The assumption that "FTAs invariably stimulate exports and competitiveness" is now under scrutiny based on empirical data.
India’s Experience with Asian Economies:
The outcomes of India’s 'Act East' policy and FTAs with Asian countries have not matched expectations from India's perspective. The trade pattern has become increasingly import-driven:
- Trade Deficit with ASEAN: India’s trade deficit with ASEAN increased sharply from US$ 10.4 billion in 2012 to US$ 51.2 billion in 2025.
- Japan and South Korea: Following trade agreements with both major nations, the growth rate of imports into India has significantly outpaced that of exports.
- The Case of Singapore: After signing the trade agreement with Singapore, India’s former 'trade surplus' turned into a 'trade deficit', exhibiting weakening export competitiveness.
Key Issues and Analytical Challenges Surrounding the FTA Strategy
Analytical Silence: The implicit assumption that FTAs automatically lead to integration into Global Value Chains (GVCs) and export growth is proving to be a misleading argument.
- Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs): Indian exporters face stringent quality standards and non-tariff barriers in partner countries, whereas Indian markets open up easily to their imports.
- Weakness in Domestic Manufacturing: High manufacturing costs in India (logistics, electricity, and land) make Indian products relatively expensive compared to foreign competitors.
- Import of Raw Materials vs. Value Addition: Under FTAs, India primarily imports cheap manufactured goods, while exports of high value-added items remain limited.
Perspectives of Policymakers and Geopolitical Analysts
Dominant Narrative / Assumption | Present Ground Reality |
Enhanced Market Access: FTAs provide seamless market access for Indian goods in foreign markets. | Sharp Surge in Imports: Imports of foreign goods into India have grown much faster than the export of Indian goods. |
GVC Integration: FTAs make the country a key part of the global supply chain. | Unequal Integration: India remains largely confined to assembly or raw material supply, while high value-addition occurs in other countries. |
Improvement in Competitiveness: Foreign competition strengthens domestic industries. | Turnaround into Trade Deficit: The shift from surplus to deficit with countries like Singapore highlights the declining competitiveness of domestic exports. |
Way Forward
Re-evaluation and Review of FTAs: A rigorous review of the 'Rules of Origin' and non-tariff barriers in existing FTAs with ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea must be conducted.
- Strengthening Domestic Manufacturing: Reducing domestic costs and improving logistics infrastructure through 'Make in India' and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes.
- Focus on High Value-Added Exports: Promoting exports of high-technology and value-added products rather than relying mainly on raw materials or primary goods.
- Inclusion of the Services Sector: Alongside trade in goods, India must place its strong 'services sector' and the mobility of skilled labor at the center of FTA negotiations.
Conclusion
Free trade agreements are undeniably powerful instruments of economic statecraft and global integration. However, expanding agreements without a solid domestic industrial strategy and trade review could further deepen the trade deficit. India must adopt a more nuanced, pragmatic, and calibrated approach in its FTA strategy, keeping its national economic interests and trade balance paramount.
Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Amendment Bill, 2026: Background, Significance, and Parliamentary Stalemate
General Studies Paper – II: Governance, Constitution, Polity, Social Justice, and International Relations.
Context
Under Article 124(1) of the Indian Constitution, Parliament has the power to determine the number of Supreme Court judges by law. The original article of the Constitution provided for a maximum of 7 judges in addition to the Chief Justice of India. Keeping in view the increasing workload, Parliament increased this number to 10 through the Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Act, 1956. Subsequently, the number of judges was increased from time to time. In line with this, considering the increasing judicial workload and pending cases, the sanctioned strength of judges was increased through an ordinance in May 2026, which was introduced as the Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Amendment Bill, 2026 to give it legislative form.
What is the Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Amendment Bill, 2026?
This bill proposes an amendment to Section 2 of the 'Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Act, 1956'.
- Main Objective of the Act: This bill replaces the 'Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Amendment Ordinance, 2026 (Ordinance 1 of 2026)'.
- Numerical Change: Through this, there is a provision to increase the sanctioned strength of judges in the Supreme Court from 33 to 37, excluding the Chief Justice of India (CJI).
- Total Capacity: The total sanctioned capacity of judges in the Supreme Court, including the Chief Justice (1), will now increase from 34 to 38.
- Implementation Date: The provisions of the bill will be deemed effective from May 16, 2026.
Reasons for Recent Discussion
Passed Without Discussion: Amid intense opposition protests and uproar, the Lok Sabha passed this amendment bill on Monday without any detailed discussion.
- Replacing the Ordinance: This bill replaces the ordinance issued earlier, through which the sanctioned strength of judges in the Supreme Court, excluding the Chief Justice, was increased.
- Change in the Number of Judges: Through this, legislative approval was given to increase the number of judges excluding the Chief Justice of India from 33 to 37 (total sanctioned capacity of 38 including the Chief Justice).
Significance and Impact of the Bill
Speedy Disposal of Pending Cases: As of January 1, 2026, the number of pending cases in the Supreme Court stood at 92,101. In 2025, 75,410 new cases were registered, while only 65,615 cases could be disposed of. Increasing the number of judges will help reduce this 'pendency gap'.
- Regular Constitution of Constitution Benches: An increase in the number of judges will make it easier for the Chief Justice of India (CJI) to constitute regular Constitution Benches to hear complex cases involving serious constitutional interpretation and substantial questions of law.
- Balance Between Appellate vs. Constitutional Functioning: The court will gain the capacity to work simultaneously on appellate cases as well as important public interest litigation and constitutional issues.
Analysis
Increasing the sanctioned strength of judges is a much-needed structural step for a judiciary reeling under the burden of pending litigations. However, merely increasing the number of judges is not enough; until judicial procedures are simplified and infrastructure is modernized, the concept of truly swift justice will remain incomplete.
Way Forward
- Time-bound Appointments: Merely increasing the sanctioned capacity is not sufficient; it should be ensured that vacancies are filled on time by the Collegium and the Executive without any delay.
- Integration of Technology: The process of case listing and case mapping should be made more efficient through Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Case Management Systems.
- National Judicial Infrastructure: Along with the Supreme Court, the basic infrastructure and supporting staff in the country's lower courts should also be strengthened so that cases can reach the final stage rapidly.
Conclusion
The Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Amendment Bill, 2026 is a timely and pragmatic step toward reform in the Indian judicial system. Although its passage without comprehensive debate amid parliamentary disruption remained a subject of discussion, from a judicial standpoint, this step will prove to be a milestone in the speedy disposal of cases, regular functioning of Constitution Benches, and providing accessible justice to ordinary citizens.